Understanding the Next Cycle of Critical Minerals

Coal fueled the First Industrial Revolution; copper and steel drove electrification and mass production; and silicon and rare earth elements underpinned computing and miniaturization. Today, lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper are at the heart of the energy and digital transitions. Each technological disruption has brought its own mineral dependencies, and the current wave is no exception.

Critical materials are defined by a combination of high strategic importance and significant supply risk. Their strategic importance stems from three functions: they are essential inputs for electrification and advanced energy systems; components of digital technology and semiconductor supply chains; and key materials for defense, aerospace, and space. Supply risk, for its part, stems from the high geographic concentration of production, dependence on foreign refining capacities, with the refining and processing of copper in China being the prime example, exposure to geopolitical and trade tensions, and the limited substitutability of these resources over time.

This sector, which has historically faced challenges related to social acceptance and significant price volatility, is now entering a new investment cycle, driven by three mutually reinforcing trends.

First, the energy transition is generating growing demand for mining based on a seemingly counterintuitive logic: every megawatt of added capacity requires substantial quantities of copper, nickel, and lithium to transport, store, and efficiently utilize this energy supply. Decarbonizing the economy requires extracting more.

Second, the restructuring of global supply chains is accelerating under the combined pressure of nations’ pursuit of sovereignty and national security imperatives. Governments and major industrial contractors are seeking to reduce their dependence on supplies concentrated in high-risk jurisdictions.

Finally, optimizing existing assets represents the most immediate driver of growth. Modernizing and increasing the productivity of a mine already in operation—where social acceptance has been established and infrastructure is in place—is economically and politically more feasible than opening a new site. The capital-intensive nature of the sector naturally directs investments toward extending the lifespan and improving the efficiency of existing facilities. This is where specialized engineering comes into play, and where developing expertise in this area is essential.

Mining exploration budgets lag significantly behind commodity prices, and it takes ten to fifteen years for new capacity to materialize. This asymmetry between market signals and industrial response requires a long-term vision and rigorous planning in a fundamentally uncertain environment.

These trends are reflected in a telling figure: the simultaneous acceleration of AI, defense, and industrial transitions, combined with the geopolitical fragmentation of supply chains, will make critical metals the driver of approximately 50% of growth in mining demand by 2035.

Macroeconomic cycles dictate exploration budgets, creating persistent mismatches between mining capacity and industrial demand, in a context where the average time required to bring a mine into operation, starting from initial exploration, exceeds 15 years. Long investment cycles, high capital intensity, and significant price volatility concentrate value creation in the hands of players capable of absorbing and pooling risk. Supply and demand dynamics unfold over long time horizons: entering the market early, with the right expertise and a coherent plan supporting a long-term vision, is crucial.

This is precisely where Volume Dix comes in. In an industry where investment decisions shape an organization’s capital and long-term trajectory, the quality of the strategic analysis conducted up front and the ability to ask the critical questions make all the difference. Volume Dix supports major industrial and engineering groups in structuring their expansion decisions: understanding sector dynamics, identifying demand drivers, evaluating strategic options, and formulating investment proposals ready for presentation to a board of directors.

For players looking at capital-intensive sectors—in strategic industries such as mining, metallurgy, or heavy industry—the question is not whether these industries will grow in importance; that is a given. The question is how to position oneself, with whom, and how.